PRESS START< submitted by Leaus- to gtaonline [link] [comments] Hey everyone since the update in GTA this newest heist has been the most profitable and easiest way to make money. So I wanted to create a guide to help others master this heist, and to help those who are struggling with it. Note: This guide is for new players, first timers, and anyone who is struggling to complete this heist. Please use this as reference to deepen your understanding of the heist. If you have a better strat, more power to you. This however is my strat, criticism is welcome. So to begin, you will have to buy the Kosatka (submarine), which is located on warstock for 2.2mil. It also has upgrades you can buy but the most noteworthy upgrade is definitely the Sparrow upgrade (1.8mil) this upgrade will make traveling back and forth much easier since your sub is located in the sea. Noteworthy things about sub:
Credit to Sportskeeda Tips for Scoping out
In order to start the heist you must do preps, for this heist you can do however many you want but for this guide you will only need to do 5. Keep your sub in Los Santos until the fifth prep mission, if you decide to do the longfin prep you can keep your sub at Los Santos. Prep 1/ The Cutting Torch: This prep mission is pretty straightforward, head to the construction site and land close enough. Before heading in, try to locate the yellow hard hat and put it on, this will make the enemy non-hostile, which makes for an easy mission. Your job is to locate the torch in a tool box. You can find it by looking in the box, it's a blue torch, search the box and head back to your sub. Also when searching for the box try to avoid staying in the enemy cones for too long and bumping into workers because this will make the enemies hostile if you do these. Prep 2/ Safe Code or Plasma Cutter There are two missions. The mission will vary on your primary, if you have the bearer bonds it’s the safe code, anything else it’s the Plasma Torch. Safe Code Mission: Head to the casino at the entrance, after entering turn left and enter the elevator (if you have a penthouse you can go up without entering the parking garage). You will have to find a car in the parking garage. It's a yellow cheap car, it never changes. After finding it you will get the card which will allow you to head up into the penthouses, after getting up there search for two guards and head shot with a suppressed weapon. If done right you will calmly walk into the apartment, you can then search the penthouse for the target, he will never change. It's a guy with a cowboy hat, kill him and leave the penthouse, you will have to fight your way out. If you slam into the entrance of the penthouse you will have to fight your way in. After getting the code get back to your sub. Plasma Cutter Mission: This is pretty straightforward, for ease take your oppressor instead of your Sparrow for higher mobility. You will have to head to the office to get the plasma cutter, but it’s not there. Pavel will instruct you to find the board and take a picture of it, the board is easy to find. Afterwards he will locate them and ping it on your map, they usually always spawn near Vinewood hills or the beach. Take them out with your oppressor missiles and fly over the bag and leave cause they will spawn two cars to shoot you. Prep 3/ Fingerprint Cloner: This mission is simple, you will have to head to a location on your map, outside are two cameras, ignore them and walk into the garage, after entering take cover behind the box forward and blind shot everyone with your shotgun. After the enemies are dead hack the laptop in the back and head to the archives. Outside the archives are cameras, shoot them and go inside. Pavel will tell you that you're looking for a small card, it always spawns in the back in the desk square, grab it and head back. Prep 4/ Weapon Load out: Always buy the suppressors, as for which load out I suggest the Conspirator due to the sticky bombs (there is a bug where you will get suppressors without buying them, just in case purchase it to be safe). There are two possible missions you can be given. One is in Los Santos in an office, for the other you will have to follow a Valkyrie up North. Weapons Possible Mission 1: Pavel will send you to an office in Los Santos you can either go through the ground entrance or the roof, I suggest the roof entrance but no matter what you will have to fight inside. Once inside clear the office and head to the back to find the gun safe, it’s always located left of the desk on the wall, hack the laptop on the desk and open the safe. Grab the weapons and leave. If you enter on the roof you can fly back but two chopper’s will spawn, shoot their gunman on the sides and hellies will be useless. Another suggestion is to leave immediately, and snack up to restore health. On ground level the hellies will still spawn again shoot the gunman and head back to the sub. Weapons Possible Mission 2: You will have to head to Elysian Island to find the Valkyrie you do not need to stay close to it. You can predict it’s direction and head North to clear the camp on foot, also avoid destroying the Avenger and the Valkyrie. Do not destroy the Valkyrie until it becomes a target on your mini map or you will fail the prep. After clearing the camp head into the Avenger and kill the enemies, afterwards parachute out and leave before more Merrywheather show up. Prep 5/ Kosatka: ( You can also do the Longfin, but I prefer Kosatka as an approach vehicle.) This is a simple mission, after starting it head into your sub driver seat and fast travel to the nearest location near the ping. After you arrive dive your sub over to the location, once you get near get on your periscope and missile the boats and the helli. You can sink your sub and engage auto-pilot under water giving you better access to the enemies sub. Try to avoid beaching your sub on shallow water and put it in the middle of the yellow circle. Leave the driver seat and exit your sub, dive into the water and look for the other sub with a yellow marker on top. After entering the enemies sub you must locate the jammer. You have two paths, one on the right, this is usually where it spawns, take the ladder down and watch your corners cause enemies are brutal in this mission. After entering the engine room look for a black box with a blue screen at the bottom of the stairs if it's not there head back the way you came. Take the left path and make your way to the control room WATCH THOSE CORNERS. If it's not there head to the back of the control room and take the stairs down, follow the path it will lead you into the torpedo room, that another spawn. Leave and head back to your sub. Prep 5/ Longfin This mission is located in Los Santos basically you can take a phantom (Semi-truck) to the police station to pick up a boat of which you can use as an approach for the heist. This mission is simple: you basically go and pick up a phantom, afterwards you drive to impound to pick up the longfin. You will be met with enemies. The one I did was the cop impound, you can enter with your phantom and drive out. It's best to clear the area, and let the cops kill you for an easier delivery (you can't call Lester). You can use your own Phantom wedge to clear vehicles out of the way. (during the heist you can use this get loot before you enter the drainage tunnel , this can be quicker way if your loot is out the way) This includes the scope out and the preps This includes the scope out and the preps Tips For Preps
Time to Start the Heist. Go to screen and tab to Finale and shift over to continue to start the mission. Once you get to the selection process pick your options. It should be Kosatka or Longfin, Drainage, Drainage, Main docks or Kotsatka, and Day Time (there's very little difference between day or night). If you're playing with others you must hurry through the selection screen because if you take too long the cuts will reset due to a bug. Squad Run When you begin the mission you will have to make your way to the drainage tunnel, if you chose the Kosatka you will have to swim to the tunnel, but if you chose the Longfin you will have to drive the boat to the tunnel. Once you arrive you will have to cut the bars at the gate, a suggestion to do this is to go in a circle three times and cut whatever remains. Afterwards swim through the tunnel and enter the compound. Compound Once you enter the compound you will have two directions to go, the left or the right. My way is to go to the left, up the stairs is a guard next to the storage staring out at the water, head shot him and make your way to the courtyard. If you followed my instructions the two guards at the pool will be to your left. In the courtyard there should be a guard coming, wait for him to stop and head shot him. After that, ready your shot at the two guards at the pool, choose your target. Since you're in a squad, ready your shot, as a suggestion one person can count down from three to one to shoot at the same time to eliminate any mistakes ( these two guards usually drop the gate keys). The next is to eliminate the juggernaut, the way to identify him is by his red cone and red skull icon. He can be killed by a single headshot, if you and your squad were quick with the guards at the pool he should be arriving, take him out. In front of the pool there are two separate guards, one will be in front of the office building to identify him, the camera is facing the pool, if you time it correctly he will be to the right of the camera making for an easy elimination. The other guard is North East of the front of the pool, or to the right of the guard you just killed. You can eliminate him if you want too, the reason I do so is because me and my mates can all access the storages without worry. Next are three guards at the office, to identify them they will have red cones. One of the guards will be moving North towards the main gate and then will move South towards the pool. You have two options, one is to wait for him to head North and take him out, or you can head shot him when he’s coming South. To achieve this there are stairs directly in front of the pool, if you take the stairs up to the right you now have enough elevation to see the guards head ( this is tricky to explain which is why I will also have a video example for visual clarification.) After taking the guard out you can head up the stairs into the office area, once up the stairs head to the right, for clarification the pool will be to the left and main gate to your right. Head down the corridor if you have done this correctly the guards back will be facing you, take him out. To your left are stairs that leads to the office, take them up, at this point the guard at the top will start to move. You have two options, one you can wait behind a corner and hit the guard or if you are quick enough the guard will stop for a brief moment, giving a chance for an easy headshot. At this point you can enter the office, where you can grab the second keycard, the first keycard is dropped by any guard you have killed ( it usually drops on the first kill, but this is RNG based). In the office there are three things you can do, one is you can hack the elevator which leads to the basement, ignore this hack. The other things are either a painting that can randomly spawn in the office, and a safe on the right wall in the back of the office. Open the safe to get anywhere between 50k to 100k, THIS DOES NOT TAKE SPACE. When you have everything, start to loot up and fill your bag by going to the storages located around the compound, to open the storages you will need the two keycards and two people. You and your squad mates will have to swipe your card at the same time to open the door, another suggestion is to use the three to one countdown to sync swipes. The South Storage will have a guard moving, the guard is located to the left of the two guards you killed at the pool, take him out and watch for the camera. After you are done, please make sure to save space for the basement storage, make your way to the basement gates, they are located beneath the office building to the left and right, it does not matter which gate you choose. Once you are in the basement you will be presented with a hack, it may look daunting but in fact it is rather simple, I suggest matching the top first and making your way down. Afterwards loot up and grab the Primary Target, it is really straightforward to do so. At this time Pavel will tell the players that more guards have arrived, if you have followed thus far, you do not have to worry. Exit the basement, and head North to the main gate there should two guards, one will be moving the other stationary. You can take the stationary guard, you can also take the guard moving but if you and your squad can make it to the gate without doing so, go ahead. The host will be prompted to select the escape route, select it and a cutscene will begin. After you will be located outside the compound. Kill in this order Outside The Compound You and your squad will be outside, if you are satisfied with your loot head left to the coast, you can jump off the cliff into the water. Once in the water you can swim off the island ,just keep heading straight and eventually you will have escaped. You can also try to steal a boat; note that some have claimed that boats may not spawn but if you manage to grab a boat this can make getting to and from much quicker. If you are missing loot head forward and take the guard next to the bike out, one person will have to head left toward a guard near a helli take him out and plant four stickies on the chopper. At the same time the other members will turn right towards the checkpoint, there should be three guards two together and one separate, and a camera behind the two guards. Take the one separate out, then the two guards, and the camera. Around the checkpoint are three bikes plus the bike with the very first guard killed. One of the bikes is hidden to the left of the checkpoint booth the other is directly in front. Start making your way towards the main docks, turn right into the jungle the moment you leave the stopping checkpoint. Pay attention to the guard tower to your right and avoid his cone, at this time Pavel will tell the squad that El Rubio’s helli is on the move, activate the stickies and he will retreat away from the island. Once you are close enough to the docks go on foot, your objective is to loot and take the boat off the island. There are two secondary loot locations, one is a warehouse with a guard and camera outside, take them out and loot. The other is located to the right with two separate guards, please refer to Sportskeeda map to see the location. Take them out and loot. Afterwards there are 3-4 guards you have to take out at the docks, to leave without alerting the guard. Two guards standing next to the boat, and one or two stationary guards looking out at the water. After clearing the guards, grab the boat and escape Cayo Perico. Congrats you have now completed the heist. Note: You can approach the compound in any way you choose, my way is a bit complicated but with practice you can clear the compound at the same time as other routes. Feel free to adjust the route in anyway, my route is just a reference to get an idea as to how to approach the compound. Note: I do it the same exact way when I solo, but since I’m solo I can skip guards and head to my objective. For the Solo run I go for cocaine, you NOT have to do this. I do this to maximize my profit, and since I am competent in my abilities I can clear the mission without many mistakes. Solo Run The strat is the same except it will be harder to take out the two guards by the pool, the major difference is you can not open the storage's to get gold or loot, you might be lucky to get painting in the office but that's RNG. A good tip when taking on double guards is to find a good angle, after killing one the other will flinch, he will prop his head up giving you the shot. You can scope the rest of island to find the most profitable loot which is cocaine, if there is none then get weed and cash (by scoping out I’m referring to checking the spawns for coke, if there is none at North docks and the Air Strip I ignore them, I do not mark every item only Coke and any profitable items at Main Docks). After leaving the compound there will be a guard in front of you next to a bike, kill him. Turn left and head to the next guy next to a helli, kill him and plant four stickies on the heli, do not activate them yet. Go back the way you came, there will be three guards at a checkpoint two together, one standing away. Kill the one standing away and then prepare to kill the two guards, after their dead shoot the camera and jump over the stop rail. You will have to be quick because a car will drive towards the checkpoint so make sure to do all that quickly. You have two options: you can swim off the island and finish the heist, or you can head to Main Docks to fill your bag. If you chose the latter run North East into the jungle towards the guards tower, but far enough away so he can’t see you. On your way to Main Dock Pave El Rubio helli will show up on the map, wait for Pavels vocal cue when he tells you that Rubio is in his helli, and then activate your stickies, boom Rubio will retreat. Now you can make it to your objective in peace. You can loot at the Marijuana fields but you may have to take out three guard towers and a single camera, as well as two guards near the fields. I’ll leave this to your gut if you think you can make it to the warehouse without messing up please do so. If you want to head to North Dock and the Airstrip you either can swim there which will eat a lot of time or you can take the boat at the docks to get there faster. Trade off is that if you swim it will take up time, but if you take the boat you will have to clear out guards to safely remove the boat from the dock. If you are satisfied with anything you get then just clear the area with loot and swim or steal the boat. This is for the Airstrip if you do not plan on going here IGNORE this. The Airstrip is an easy place to navigate since a lot of the guards are far from each other so you can clear the airstrip easily. There are two loot spawns one at the hangar with one guard, and a warehouse with two separate guards. There's guard outside the hangar kill him, and go inside, if your loot is on the second floor, look for a forklift and pick up a box lift and it up then press the box against the back of the hangar below a blue tarp you can then climb the lift and the box to get access to the loot. The other airstrip loot spawn is an easy place to clear, one guard will be moving you can head shot him from the hangar, at the warehouse there’s a camera shoot it and inside the warehouse is a guard questioning his career choice, kill him. If you need to head to North Dock head there by bike or by foot, you can loot without killing any guard. After you're done just swim off the Island, or take the boat. Congrats, you have just completed the heist solo. Note: I will be adding a second strat to clear the compound, the reason for this is because a Redditor provided the strat. I do not mind adding his strat, but I must remind everyone that you can tackle the heist in any way you feel comfortable with. I missed that gate keys, so I killed more than I should have. Solo Run Second Strat: Essentially, it is the same as the other one, except for going left you go right. Your first target are the two guards at the pool. They should be to the right of you, find a good angle and head shot the first one, wait for the second guard to finish flinching and kill him. The juggernaut should be making his way towards you, wait for him to exit the camera’s view and kill him. If the gate key drops pick it up and kill the guard in front of the pool he should be past the camera. Take out the camera and wait for the moving red cone guard to turn his direction North, once he turns around go up the stairs and kill him. Move towards the second red cone guard his back should be facing you, hit him and ascend the stairs. The last guard on top should be moving. You can either wait behind the corner and hit him or speed around the corner to head shot him, it’s up to you. Loot the office safe and make your way to the basement. Finally, use the gate keys to open the basement, hack and grab the primary target. Afterwards head up towards the main gate, a new guard will spawn, you can wait for the moving guard to move out of range, and kill the stationary guard. From there you can run to the gate and exit the compound. I had brain fart at the hacking lmao Heist Tips
That's it ladies and gentleman, I hope this guide has helped anyone. I’m aware I’ve definitely went too in depth in this guide but I enjoy making it, Happy Grinding -Leaus |
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We aren’t ready to give an official release date yet, but we are confident they will be ready early in 2015. As you may have read on IGN, Heists were a much bigger challenge to create than we had originally anticipated. Early versions were simply not good enough and had to be scrapped more than once as we honed in on how we thought they should work. We’re happy to say that the pack we are now finalizing is something we are excited by and eager to release as soon as it is ready. We, as a company, have always been about trying to make something that is good rather than hitting a date. We apologize when this gets frustrating but firmly believe that rushing out second-rate content does not do anyone any favors. Hopefully you agree that yesterday’s new Trailer is a sign that Heists are shaping up nicely, but we still need some time to fine tune them. Because we need a little time to get Heists right, we are going to give you a small Christmas gift to keep you entertained until we are done with them.Sources:
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Hey Jeff! I'm a minimalist & find that I'm happier with less stuff & when I give/receive experiences rather than items. Do you find consumer happiness reflects this shift towards minimalism since that is a (small, but seemingly growing) trend, especially among Millennials? | Great question! There is some relatively new research looking at happiness from experiences vs. material possessions. Most of it shows that happiness from equally valued (e.g. price) experiences is higher than for possessions. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, all that work tends to ignore long run happiness with highly prized possessions. For instance, if you have a sentimentally valued object, happiness that stems from that object lasts for a long time. What most possessions don't do is provide long lasting happiness. You buy a new shiny toy and it DOES make you happy...but that happiness goes away quickly. My collaborators and I have termed this idea "Hedonic Decline." |
So as for minimalism, there is not evidence that I know of that shows that less possessions make you happier. There's plenty showing that more possessions don't make you happier, but that's not the same thing. | |
One more layer of complexity: there are two routes to happiness: hedonic and eudaimonic. The former is what we usually think of when we think of happiness: how much joy does XYZ bring me. The latter, however, is closer to self-actualization. It's the happiness the comes from a accomplishing something....even if there was pain involved in getting there. I wonder if minimalism can increase eudaimonic happiness. | |
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That's interesting. Thank you for responding. In the minimalism community, self-actualization is reflected in endeavors such as achieving certain goals (like, paying off debt) that usually involves some amount of self-discipline &/or self-sacrifice. | I'd say that the vast majority of research in happiness excludes eudaimonic happiness, largely because it's so hard to measure. My personal, non-data supported, take is that eudaimonic happiness is far more important than hedonic happiness. The latter is fleeting, whereas the former can be life changing. |
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Beautifully said. | Thank you. |
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How does depression affect eudaimonic happiness compared to hedonic happiness? | Great question and I don't know the answer. Social Psychology typical studies what we very poorly term "normal" psychology, which excludes clinical conditions like depression. Sorry! |
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What’s your take on “pay to play” - as in, some “hedonic” purchases at are required to signal you’re in the game, making progress on eudaimonic happiness. When you get older and into your career, I’d venture many people have already figured out that hedonic happiness doesn’t do squat long-term, but there’s a balance in terms of how much hedonic happiness to have to acquire for the ultimate long-term eudaimonic happiness. Example: in sales, which I’m in tech analytics sales, companies want to spend for solutions to business problems, but they also want to see, visually, that the person they’re paying is a good representative for them. High cost equals a person that can represent that taste. Nice. Tailored suits, a nice watch and latest tech gadgets. There’s a pay to play aspect that signals to the world who I am, and that in turn actually allows me to get what I want- student loans paid off and early retirement.. | I don't think there's any conflict here. If you will find some form of life satisfaction by succeeding in your career, there's no harm in also purchasing items that help you reach that goal. Those items can, in and of themselves, make you happy...nothing wrong with that. More to the point, hedonic and eudaimonic happiness don't have to be in opposition. You can have both! |
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I really like this response. While i can jive with basic premise of experiences over possessions...i’m find it used a lot by people who actually just want to shirk obligation. I run HHiring and there is a persistent trend of people not wanting to act like their job is important..just because it’s easier to justify bailing on work/shifts to go do things when you can say you’re doing it for the experience, not focusing on the money you make at a job. I’m trying to figure out the best way to respond to people who think i’m some big bad money grubbing boss for wanting people to do their jobs. Meanwhile, in my personal life...i feel like i’m getting a lot of push back socially from people who think i should only work where i can just make my own schedule and dip put for an “experience” whenever. At the end of the say, it feels like people will just wax philosophic reasons for demanding leisure with all the material perks of having jobs and working. | Great point. This relates to intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation. The former is the desire to do something because it's inherently interesting/rewarding. The latter is doing something for compensation. This is more in the realm of organizational behavior, and you'll have to wait for my wife who is also a professor, but of organizational behavior and theory, to do an AMA for more on that :) |
Hello, thanks for doing this. Are you familiar with "loot boxes" in video games? I feel like the topics of a lot of your papers would fit right into why consumers/businesses use loot boxes. How does a loot box mechanic differ from gambling and should it be treated the same? (Regulation, age restriction, etc) If they are the same, how do you feel about video games including a loot box mechanic? Sticking with gambling parallels, what are your thoughts on video game companies targeting "whales" given that gamers can be any age nowadays? | I'm not a gamer myself (though I do love TTPRGs and run a D&D 5e campaign), but I'm pretty familiar with loot boxes. Mobile games and social media platforms in general have become very good at continuous reinforcement. It can be the allure of getting a new outfit in a loot box or just an upvote on Reddit...the point is that we are wired to love small rewards, even if those rewards are meaningless. Casinos have mastered this art and loot boxes are an capitalizing of the same basic psychological mechanisms: need for positive reinforcements. So are loot boxes the same as gambling? Probably not the SAME, but damn close. As for regulation, I am strongly in favor of making gambling of all forms only accessible to adults and even then providing access to counseling for those who suffer from gambling addiction. |
I have a lot less sympathy towards wealthy adults who choose to gamble as a form of entertainment. The problem is that it's not always obvious who's a whale and who's just pretending to be one for the attention. The latter is highly susceptible to financial ruin and I'd want them protected just the same as they are with standard gambling. | |
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Do you find the researcher in you observing and asking questions about the players' decision making processes in your D&D campaign? My old DM minored in psychology, and I often felt like a rat in his experiments. I enjoyed it, though. It kind of added an extra facet to the game. | More than my research, teaching has made a huge difference in being a DM. When I lecture, I am forced to be quick on my feet to understand student questions, reply accordingly, and make sure that I'm moving the lecture along. That is the same with DMing. I need to be able to understand the motives of my players, respond appropriately with NPCs, and keep the story going. |
I'm sure that my knowledge of psychology helps, but I wouldn't think it influences the way I DM (or play) that much. | |
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Studying business Psychology in Switzerland and leading the yawning portal atm, seems like I need to start teaching :p | Ha! Check out this thread: https://www.reddit.com/WaterdeepDragonHeist/comments/fcc89a/the_yawning_portal_a_drinking_song_and_boss_music/ |
I used that for my game and it was great. | |
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Could I join your 5e campaign? | Ha! Sorry, no. It's just close friends and we're months into it. I'm running Waterdeep, if you're curious. |
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I'm applying to Carnegie's MBA for what it's worth! If I'm accepted, may I join then? ;-) | How about you get in and then we discuss! |
Hi Jeff! What is your favorite heuristic or logical fallacy when it comes to decision making? Can you teach us about one that people might not know about? | Easy: Diversification Bias. That's where I started my career 15 years ago. I didn't discover this bias, but have built on it. Anyway, it's the idea that people choose more variety than they should. For example, if you are going to pick some snacks for the next few days, you might pick: chips, pretzels and an apple. Those are fine, but really chips are your favorite and you picked the other two because you thought you'd get tired of chips every day. Well, turns out you'd be wrong. A day is enough to reset satiation/hedonic-decline in most cases, so you'd be better off always picking your favorite option! Doing otherwise means eating snacks that are less preferred. |
A new one that my doctoral student, Julian Givi, and I recently published: The Future Is Now (FIN) Heuristic. It's the idea that people believe that future events will be like present events, even when evidence points to the contrary. An example: if it's sunny today, you're more likely to think it'll be sunny tomorrow, even if the forecast clearly predict rain. What happens is you treat information about the present as having evidentiary value for future events, even when that's just not true. | |
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I really like that you give your student credit. | PhD students do all the hard work. Professors just bask in the glory :) |
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I think diversification bias is how I ended up with 5 shades of blue nail polish that are virtually undistinguishable from each other! Interesting to consider. | Ha! Just might be... |
Tell me about your paper "Sentimental value and gift giving: Givers’ fears of getting it wrong prevents them from getting it right". From what I read of the abstract, it seems that gift-givers undervalue sentimental value, seeing it as riskier. Why is that, and how can we give better gifts? | Sure, this is a paper with my former doctoral student, Julian Givi. Basically, people are risk averse in gift giving when they shouldn't be. If I know you like coffee and I have a choice to give you some nice coffee beans or a framed photo of the two of us (presumably since we're friends), I give the former b/c it's a sure bet. But as the recipient, overwhelmingly, people prefer the latter. So givers should take the risk and give the sentimentally valuable gift over one that is more a sure bet. |
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Interesting. When giving presents, givers focus too much on the recipient's known wants, which gets in the way of giving a meaningful present. Thank you! I'll be sure to keep that in-mind next Christmas. | That's exactly it. |
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I sometimes hesitate at this. I don’t want to come off as the selfie culture of all about me in pictures! But relatives do love getting pics of the kids for gifts. Still, how often is this perceived as a form of narcissism by the gift receiver? Edit: pictures of my kids not just me! | One trick we do: every Christmas holiday we print full size calendars with our kids pictures on them. That's our holiday gift to all the grandparents. They LOVE it. |
We also send small photo books to the grandparents throughout the year of some of the best pictures we take. | |
We have yet to send too many, but that's specific to our family. | |
The best advice I always have for something like this is: just ask! People are often worried about asking gift recipients about their preferences, but our research shows that a) recipients don't care about being asked and b) you can give better gifts that way. | |
Hi Jeff ! I have a question regarding involvement in a purchase, is there an increasing trend to become highly involved in the purchase of even low value object ? I find myself doing this during the pandemic doing comparison searches for a bulb which costs 10 dollars. Is this an exception ? Or is there some underlying psychological reason isolated to me ? | Absolutely. Two reasons this could be happening. 1) With more free time, the threshold for what merits deep research drops a lot. 2) Many people are facing financial hardships, and so making sure every dollar is well spent becomes really important. |
Hi Jeff, Thank you for the great AMA. Where do you see the future of insights departments in consumer companies? Most companies looks like giving up on ethnographic and in person research and focus on data analytics. I speculate management is under great pressure and in the meantime aspire to Google, Amazon etc. What is your take of insights departments future in large companies? | Thank you! Exploratory research like ethnographies, interviews, and focus groups is really useful for brainstorming. But they are a poor substitute for quantitative data. Now, that doesn't mean "big data"...just data that has larger samples and is better representative of populations. Surveys are still amazing. When we want to forecast an election, we don't use big data, we conduct a political poll. They work. |
But yes, right now, AI and machine learning are the hot new ideas on the block and everyone wants in on them. There is plenty of amazing applications of AI/ML, but what they can't do is tell you "why". As in, why did someone choose this option over that one? Or why are people motivated by this goal or that goal? Those types of answers allow you to apply knowledge in completely novel contexts. AI/ML needs to be trained on a specific type of data for a specific type of task. It is AMAZING at that. But as soon as you introduce a new context or new set of experiences, it fails. That's where good old fashioned surveys and behavioral experiments come in. | |
If a program was built to help us make better decisions, do you think we would use it? Do you think we can listen to a program’s advice better than we do from experts? | We already do. Weather forecasts tell us how to dress. Facebook tells us what to think. Tinder tells us who to date. Etc... etc... |
A program that EXPLICITLY tells you what to do won't work too well. People like to feel like they have free will. They don't, though. We are greatly influenced by our environment (not just technology) whether we know it or not. As one example: I can guess your weight reasonably well just by knowing your zip code (please don't make me actually do this as I'm not in the business of public shaming!). If we had true free will and agency, that should be impossible. Instead, we are the products of our environment. | |
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60641 | Chicago? I believe Illinois has 30-35% obesity (I'm doing this quickly and not looking at your zip specifically), so pretty high weight. |
Hi Jeff! Since I'm a 14 yrs old and knew nothing about what you study, I have very limited questions I can ask. But as I have observed, people are often sheepish and will consume as the trend goes. What is the most unexpected trend, worldwide? P.S. will defo check out your channel | I don't expect most people to know my work (I like to think my ego isn't THAT big!), so no worries! |
You're right. Trends will drive a lot of human behavior. We are social creatures and follow what others do much more than we care to admit. As for the most unexpected trend, that's really hard to say. Maybe this is too broad, but I'm surprised by how short people's attention span is when it comes to current events. News cycles used to last for weeks, now they last for hours. I suppose I know that people don't have long attention spans, but I'm still surprised. | |
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Any underlying reasoning for this? | For the short attention spans? We can invoke evolutionary psychology, which I'm not a big fan of, and it would suggest something like a tensions between exploring and cultivating. So it would argue that our ancestors needed to have some reason to leave their immediate tribe to find new resources. So perhaps our attention spans are short b/c of this and the current environment exaggerates that behavior. |
Have you done(or can you point to) any research relating to the decision making/not making around getting rid of possessions? I have a relative who keeps anything that has a perceived value as in could be sold on ebay/garage sale which they never sell. They are otherwise rational, clean, don't over consume..def not hoarder territory.. but I struggle to convince them that the old digital camera that's been sitting for 3 years could just be disposed of. | Hoarding is definitely a thing. There isn't much in the study of item disposition in the empirical world of research (lots of interesting qualitative work that I'm less familiar with). The big exception to this is the Endowment Effect. The short version is that you value items you own more than if you don't own it. So a mug sitting on a store shelf is worth, say $10 to you, but as soon as you own it is worth, say, $20 to you. Nothing changed except your ownership of it. That explains some of hoarding behavior, but not all of it. |
For a qualitative research paper on the topic, see here: https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/mcb/216/2010/00000013/00000001/art00001 | |
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I suppose I have the Endowment Effect. Everytime I find something valuable i dont have the will to let it go. Even though i can sell it and re buy it later, or buy something similar haha. It's like I want to take the most of it and use it til it brakes, go missing, or whatever. | The endowment effect isn't infinite. As in, it's not that you won't be willing to sell your items for ANY price, it's just that your willingness to sell is higher than your willingness to buy. |
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Hey Professor, appreciate the AMA. A couple of questions: 1) Just from my own thoughts banging around in my head and observations I've made during the pandemic, do you see the pause our society went through and the economic downturn effecting the psychology behind materialism? It seems the American "push for more no matter what" mind state took a eating and I think I'm seeing some consequences of that. | 1) It's possible, but my pretty strong prediction is that within 1-2 years of the pandemic ending, we will be back to where we were beforehand in terms of materialism and general behavior. Extreme events like a pandemic seem like they are life changers. For some, that's true (e.g. someone loses a loved one), but for most it's not. We are inherently myopic and think that the thing in front of our noses is the only thing that exists. |
2) I'm a current medical student and we get inundated with so many studies that it's overwhelming. Trying to practice evidence based medicine is really hard in an atmosphere that prioritizes publishing with little regard to quality. Do you ha e ways of navigating that I could apply to my day to day? Thanks again. | 2) I can't speak to medical research, but that problem exists in all academic fields. The best thing to do is to let science happen. There will always be flashy new findings, but the ones that really matter will get replicated over and over again...and will get built on. The BS ones tend to just die out. That's not a full proof approach to vetting research, but it's better than just assuming everything you see published is true and/or important. |
I am a former CMU student. How do you feel about CMU's decision to appoint Richard Grenell as a senior fellow? And how can we do something to fight against it because it seems they are not listening the current student body? Recently, the fence was vandalized against BLM (they wrote "all lives matter" over the previously written "black lives matter"). How are you working to build a more inclusive community at CMU and to fight for those who need it? How can former students help? | I signed the petition to revoke his appointment and stand by that completely. I do understand why the university is upholding it, but I am embarrassed to have him associated with CMU. |
As for the fence, the CMU Provost sent a really great letter immediately after it all happened condemning the vandalism and supporting BLM. Personally, I try VERY hard to do things like call on students of all races and genders and not let white men (of which I am one, btw) dominate conversations. I try to make sure that examples I use to highlight ideas include more than just typically white and/or male oriented products. I have been trained in Green Dot deescalation for sexual assault and violence. I am on the university academic disciplinary committee and have direct say over infractions like harassment or discrimination. And I sit on my college's Faculty Diversity Equity and Inclusion committee with the hope of including representation and inclusion of URM and female faculty. I care about this topic a LOT and do what I can...still probably not enough. | |
As for alums, if you see behavior at CMU that you think is antithetical to inclusiveness, let the administration know. Get your fellow alums to weigh in. The university wants your sweet sweet alumni donations. If you are all pissed off, they'll reply. | |
Hey Professor! I absolutely love to give. But I feel so awkward being thanked. And I dont really like receiving gifts. What would the psychology behind that be? | Great question. It's hard to know without more detail, but I'd guess that some of that anxiety is about attention...as in, your lack of desire for it. As for not liking receiving gifts, maybe you have just not received that many good gifts? Again, it's really hard to say without knowing a bit more about you and the gift giving contexts you're involved in. If you want to share more, I can try to answer better, but totally understandable if you don't! |
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Well, if I think more deeply....whenever I need something, I feel like it's up to me to make me happy. I usually don't really ask anyone else. Whether I need a massage, have a getaway, or get my dream dog, I just do it myself. | As an aside, self-gifts are great! You get what you need, and nothing else. No issues there. |
To your question, though, I do wonder if you just haven't receive that many great gifts. Yes, gifts can fall flat and the recipient might not love them, but when they hit, they not only provide the value from the gift itself (e.g. a great bottle of wine) but ALSO the sentimental value from the associations that the gift brings up (e.g. who gave it to you and under what circumstances...like for a birthday or graduation). | |
Hi Jeff, I have a job application at a place where they do conjoint analysis, something I have never done before. Got any tips? Do you have any thoughts on the technique in general? Personally as someone who takes surveys I find it very abstract (e.g. "Would you rather buy a $5 toaster with two slots vs. a $20 toaster that takes bagels?" I don't know!). | First, good luck with the job application! Conjoint is a really useful tool when used correctly (like any tool, I suppose). The short version is that it lets you extract utility weights for different dimensions (e.g. price, product size, product speed, etc...) without directly asking people to answer questions about those dimensions. So instead of saying "how important is price to you?" you would come up with product profiles that have varying price (among other things) and then have people choose between those profiles. You can then extract, using nothing more than regression analysis (though, practically, no one does it that way...they use software like Sawtooth or SPSS Conjoint), how important those dimensions are for any given person. |
the technique is tedious in that respondents have to make LOTS of pair-wise comparisons, but the end product can teach you a lot about what people actually value. | |
One key is to make the task as simple and realistic as possible. So the example you gave is confusing and wouldn't work too well. But I asked you to choose between a $20 toaster with 2 slots vs. a $30 toaster with 3 slots" that would work (in reality it would be more complex than that). You'd be forced to tell me if you prefer a cheaper toaster with fewer slots or a more expensive one with more slots. There's not right answer, but I would learn about those two dimensions for you. I'd need a lot more pair-wise tradeoffs to do this right, but that's the general idea. | |
Do you find that there are significant differences between particular groups? Does age influence gift giving habits more then sex, or some other factor? Just curious about the general trends of gift giving between groups. Super general question I know, so feel free to just call me out on it | Definitely difference across genders as you would expect. More jewelry given by men to women. More gadgets given by women to men. Not so much in terms of age, though I've never really directly looked at that. The reality is that most gifts aren't that exciting. They tend to be things that are popular in a given year or old standbys like gift cards and ties. There certainly are amazing gifts and gift givers out there, but the vast majority of actual gifts given are pretty mundane. But that's not a bad thing if the recipient still likes what they get! |
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Yeah, sounds about right. And yeah if everyone is chipper it's all good :) Is there a sort of gift quality vs quantity data? Like is it better to get more frequent smaller gifts or largemore expensive gifts less frequently? | Smaller more frequent gifts every time. I have some new work on obligatory vs. non-obligatory gifts. Basically, you can make someone very happy by giving a small gift on a random Tuesday compared to a much nicer gift on their Birthday. More random-tuesday gifts every time! |
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Thank you! :) will the results of that be on ur channel? | Probably not. The channel isn't about my research, but rather about how to understand data more broadly. But the results will hopefully be published soon! |
How extensive are the consumer psychology divisions in companies like apple? | Lots of variation. Places like apple, google, amazon will have a lot of depth in terms of psychologist and consumer behavior researchers. But those are the gold standard. Most will rely on consultants to help out |
How does education on finance and economics affect consumer behavior? Does knowing the way our brains make consumer decisions or how businesses try to get you to buy change how you shop? | If you understand better how firms are trying to entice you to buy their products, you can absolutely counteract that better. For instance, $1.99 is really just $2...we all get that. But it turns out, having a 9-ending price really drives demand. That's nuts, but it does. IF you understand that, you stand a shot and not being duped by something so trivial. So educating yourself can be a big help. On finance and econ eduction, also really helpful, but in other ways. When you go to get a 30-year mortgage for your home, understanding how interest rates work, how inflation might affect home prices, how amortization tables work, etc... will help you make a much more informed decision about what is right for you. |
hi! how do you predict consumer happiness/decision making etc during unprecedented times like this, when such a scenario may not have taken place before and you do not have much data to go on? also since the research you do and the data you collect are relevant to sales, do you see advertisements being affected by the pandemic in the long run from any changes in consumer mindset? | It's really hard to predict much of anything right now. There are some basic behaviors and experiences that we can expect during a pandemic (e.g. increased anxiety, defaulting to familiar experiences, increased online shopping), but the reality is you're right...we just don't know. There's virtually no data on pandemic psychology/behavior, and all the pop-science stuff you read is just guessing at what will happen. |
As for advertising, I think that once the pandemic is over, life will be back to what it was beforehand in almost every respect. People are amazing to adapting to changing circumstances. We are all doing that now with the pandemic and will all do that again when it's over. I don't think that advertising will be any different. Give it a year after we're all vaccinated (or whatever winds up being the solution) and most people will largely forget that we even had a pandemic. Yes, some will have big changes like lost loved ones or lost jobs, but for most people, life will return to what it was before Covid hit. | |
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thank you for answering, that is very interesting! the data you collect seems to be applicable to so many different fields. i asked about advertising as a student interested in media, but i can see it being useful in various types of companies be it internet security, food, travel etc. your job sounds really cool and i will definitely check out your YouTube channel :) | Thanks! |
Did you ever get to meet Herbert Simon? Wasn't he interested in similar things? | I wish! I've been at CMU for 11 years. Simon passed away in 2001, so I missed him by a few years. |
And yes, Simon was one of the original researchers into what's known as Bounded Rationality, it's the idea that humans don't act like computers and process all information simultaneously, but rather use heuristics and shortcuts to accomplish most tasks. | |
How influential was the work of Daniel Kahnemann to your current teaching? | VERY! I don't know Danny personally, but my advisor got his PhD at Princeton when Danny was there, so lots of indirect influence that way. More generally, the field of decision making was build on his (and others) work, so hard not to be influenced. |
Do you have any opinions on investors behavior during covid 19? More specifically how certain financial firms may have targeted people who have or would dabble in market that have recently lost work due to the pandemic? | Caveat: I am not a finance professor. That said, my read is that fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving a lot of unexpected behaviors. The market has rallied like crazy since the March low and everyone wants in on that. It's hard to sit by and watch others make a killing while you don't. |
As for practices like getting people who don't typically to invest to do so, there's two sides to this. On the one hand, getting more people involved with investing is a great thing. It used to be only that the very wealthy could invest and reap the benefits of the market, but now with places like Robinhood and fee-free trading on Schwab and the like, everyone can participate. On the other hand, MANY people don't understand risk well at all. They just see the possible upside and ignore the possibility of losing a lot (see that guy that committed suicide b/c of a terrible options trade...that's horrible). So firms and gov't have a responsibility to both educate investors and provide safeguards against uninformed behaviors. | |
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Hello, I just want to specify something in your comment! The young college student who committed suicide did so because a misprogrammed number on the trading site, Robinhood. Of course at the time he did not know it, but the value loss that was near $800,000, was showing the loss of the entire option, not his equity in the option, which was -$1,000 - -$2,000 if I remember right. It was Robinhood's terrible interface, not his misunderstanding of risk, which is horrible. If you would like a misunderstanding of risk on trading platforms, look no further than wallstreetbets, of course as you said FOMO is a huge factor, or if you're interested, some trading platforms intentionally advertise to consumers without properly representing risk. Thank you very much for this AMA, it has been quite insightful! | Thanks so much for that clarification! |
I have a question re: dating sites / apps. Is there a way to structure incentives so that the company is motivated to find good pairings between users? It feels like Tinder, Bumble, Hinge, etc. don't have such an incentive currently | I think they do have an incentive to make good pairings. Word of mouth is their strongest asset so having good matches is key. The challenge is that good matches are hard to come by and not everyone agrees on what good is. Is good marriage? Is it a fun night? Not clear. |
Hello Professor and thank you for taking this time. As a professional that works in marketing and a person who suffers from mental illnesses, it is often disheartening for me to see so much valuable research and findings be easily made available for use by companies for marketing and consumer exploitation while it is so difficult for those who are struggling to find information that could be beneficial to living their lives more freely. What are your thoughts on this, and do you think there are ways we could change the system to better benefit individuals needs directly? | The connection between marketing academia, marketing industry, and consumers just sucks. No one outside of academia reads marketing academic journals. Few in academia care if their work has applications (even in an applied field like marketing). And consumers can't be bothered (rightfully) to read through academic work to learn. |
Some solutions that I've seen that work: - Marketing Science Institute: this is an organization whose entire goal is link academia and practice. They have conferences where they invite folks from both sides to collaborate. More of this please! - Pop-science social science books like Freakonomics, Blink, Predictably Irrational, etc...: They all have plenty of shortcomings, but the authors all do an amazing job of conveying the ideas of academia to the public. I think that's fantastic. More of this too please! - Consulting for non-profits. I do this and many others do as well. We use our knowledge to help non-profits do their amazing work. This is a way to avoid that "exploitation" you mentioned and instead use what we know to help others. There's not much money in this kind of consulting, which is why few do it, but it's really important. Maybe some kind of granting agency could earmark money for non-profits to hire academic consultants to help them use what we know to help the world. That would be awesome | |
hey, I'm a recent advertisement graduate, it's good to see someone from such a familiar field here anyways, when I do groceries, I always follow the list to a T, and I take no time at all getting the items, basically, I go against every little trick supermarkets have to "seduce" the customer, so my question is: what makes someone a "good customer"? is it someone highly susceptible to the marketing tricks at the market or someone who spends both their money and time more efficiently? | Good can mean different things here. You sound like you're probably super loyal to products. That's pretty great for most companies. The fact that you don't succumb to unintended purchases definitely makes you less attractive in one capacity, but your predictability makes you very attractive in other ways. If I could run a company where every customer always bought the same thing every week, I would LOVE that. I would know how to schedule raw material purchases, delivery schedules, etc... I would have a steady and dependable income. If, however, I relied just on getting lucky and catching the eye of customers as they passed my products on store shelves, that would be a whole lot more difficult a business plan to execute. |
Hi Jeff, I have always geared my life towards maxing out the benefits and deducting the losses for example leaving my family in order to search for better life oportunities, ditching jobs where I felt safe in favor of new and more promising ones. And by this logic I have reached quIte far in my life. But at the end achieving all this goals don't yields the expected satisfaction. However I'm pretty sure that don't doing this would be even worse. Why does it seems that no matter if the desitions taken are the best at my point of view it still seems like I need more than the goals I have achieved. Why is disatisfaction the expected result? | Wow, that's a lot to give up for goals! People are inherently likely to make what are known as upward comparisons. We don't look at the people who we have done better than, but instead focus on the few who done better than us. The classic example is Silver Olympic medalists. They should be elated, but instead they just covet the Gold medalist. |
Beyond that, in your specific case, it's hard to say for sure, but we know that close relationships are the number one driver of life satisfaction. If you've given those all up in pursuit of some other goal, that might explain things a bit. Take that with a grain of salt as all I know about you is summed up in 100 words or so! | |
Hello Jeff, glad to see this AMA here! I'm a statistics student in Brazil (one of my professors got his doctorate degree at Carnegie Mellon University, in fact!). Much of what we learn nowadays is related to careers pertaining the finance fields. Other stuff includes academic research mixed with other fields. I see myself as a data analyst for a big bank someday, but I always think: is there any career for a data scientist thats underrated by modern standards but still awesome and rewarding, in your opinion? | Go work for a non-profit! It's now where the money is, but many need help from data scientists. You can actually change the world that way! |
Which US dollar bill is your favorite? | Cash? You still use cash? |
the below is a reply to the above | |
For coke yeah | Oh, in that case.... Nope, not replying and losing my tenure :) |
the below is a reply to the above | |
Prof, you have a bias. OP mean Coca Cola. | I don't drink soda either :) |
The casino heists make you a LOT more money than the Doomsday Heists, in a lot less time, with a lot less hassle. On casino heists, I've gotten to the point where I can set up one up in about 70-90 minutes by myself in an invite only lobby, and then I'll do the heist on hard with one friend and we'll usually get out of the vault with about $2.4-2.6m, then after crew expenses are paid we'll Why are all most players hating the casino heist already We just got atleast 1 full day Yeah the preps suck maybe. But dont give already if you guys check the awards section you fill find an award With 3 pictures from cash, diamands and gold bar So were getting more stuff to steal only now its ca... The total potential take in cash for one run of the Diamond Casino Heist is $2,115,000. However, you won’t get all of that. Lester takes a small cut, then your support crew all take their If you grab the cash from this secret vault you also get an award for doing so called the "Daily Cash Grab", it gives you a 100 RP bonus too. Daily Cash Grab Award Overall Heist Cap Limit. The cap on the maximum overall amount you can take in a single heist is GTA$3.619 million. Lastly unlike other GTA Online heists, the contents of the Diamond casino will change also. The first time you do the heist you will always get cash in the vault, but subsequent attempts could see the vault filled with artwork, gold or sometimes diamonds. It happened to me, cash is the most common thing to get. No glitch just unlucky. Once you’ve done all the approaches you can call Lester and cancel the heist and just keep scopping the casino till you get something else. Do have in mind that these stats are only relevant for when diamonds are available as part of the GTA Diamond Casino heist – which isn’t always the case. Cash (~37%) Artwork (~28%) cash is shit but i got something for you, do the scope out and find out what you have, if its cash call lester in the casino and cancel the heist. leave the casino and leave the area like the mission tells you to . once it comes up with mission complete change lobbies and then go back to the arcade and start the heist again. youll have to pay the set up fee again but it should give you Step 4: Start the Diamond Casino Heist. You will be offered a chance to choose your buyer and get some extra help on the third blackboard. Choose Buyer. Buyers have three levels: low, middle, and high. Always go for the high-level buyer. They will offer the most amount of money.
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