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"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)
I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to. Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547 I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can. I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts. Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T
Intro
"The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
"I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
"For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
"We're spread way too thin."
"If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
Widespread match fixing
The Pandemic
"People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
"People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
"To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
"Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
"People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
"It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.
CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association
"Who does this union really fucking serve?"
RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
"and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
"We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
"They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
"I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
"Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
"Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
"That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
He also says their rankings are a joke
"Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
"Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission
"They have been put in an impossible position."
RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
"ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
"Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
"Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
"They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
"They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
Also says more coaches being banned are coming
He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
"I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
"So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
"Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
Stream Sniping
"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"
RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
"Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
"ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
"All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?
Match Fixing
"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."
RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
"Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
"Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
"I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
"Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
"There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
"It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
"It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
"I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
"That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
"All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
"I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."
North America
"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."
RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
"was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."
Talent
"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."
RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."
Valve
"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"
Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
"It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
"Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
"People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."
Closing Statements
"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."
RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
"We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
"There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
"How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
"Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
"The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
"If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
"They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
"Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
"This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
"You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
"Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
"Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
"You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
"I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
"I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
"I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."
Too ashamed to admit that I'm being abused as a guy and too scared to do anything about it.
Hi everyone. Just a disclaimer, I'm not posting this to gain some pity. I simply want to lay out my story before I break down. It's your prerogative to judge whether you will believe if any of this is true. My story started about more than a year ago. I was an OFW and flew back to the Philippines for a quick Christmas and New Year's break (2019 - before covid). It was a surprise visit for my parents which I haven't seen in almost 2 years. Please take note that I've never been back to the Philippines for more than 10 years. I usually go on a trip with my folks every 2-3 years outside the Phils. Being it as a surprise, I didn't went back to my hometown for a few days as I wanted to surprise them on Christmas eve. I booked a hotel in Manila near the casino and MOA for a few days. Knowing that I'll probably spend some days by myself, boredom got to me and I tried out Tinder - just for fun (I was single then, fyi). Got a few good matches - weeding out some catfish, fakes, and "service providers" - and tried out meeting with some of them. Then, I got matched with this one girl. We decided to meet just for a drink. When we met, she brought her own car to drive us around. Since I'm not really familiar about the watering holes in Manila, I let her decide where to go. I told her to "surprise" me. We actually had a great night. We bonded, laughed, got a few drinks, and ended up back to my hotel. Needless to say, I had a great time and for someone who I just met on a dating to turn out to be such a catch - and so I thought. We kept in touch after that. Went out for dinner a couple of times after that and everything was great. Got to know her a bit more. She's a recruitment manager at one of the top call centres here in the Philippines. That info alone got me really excited. She has already achieved so much, independent, and acted very sophisticated around that time. I thought, on a very rare case, that I found the one by sheer luck - on a dating app of all places. Call me naive now. I'm thinking the same, too. Christmas eve came. The time had come for me to check out and surprise my family. We both decided to meet again after NYE. I was over the moon during the holidays. After spending NYE in Boracay with my folks, I checked in to a hotel in Manila a few days before my flight. We met a couple of times during that time. I'm aware that LDR does not work - at all. Still, on my last night, we decided to give it a go. Back abroad (I will not provide the actual country. Since she or her family might recognize that this is me), we kept in touch and everything was going well. I actually planned to surprise her by going back to the Philippines after a few months. Really looked forward to it. Then, covid happened. So, plans changed and I have to wait for a flight to be available back to the Phils. As I waited, I kept hope alive. I already have an apartment in Eastwood waiting for us. I've been working at home pre-covid and doing well for myself so I thought giving us a chance back in the Phils should be just fine. Besides, of she's actually the one then the gamble will pay off. I was ecstatic. July 2020. Finally got a flight back home. Can't even sleep on my way back. Got quarantined for a few days. Once that's all done, I was counting the minutes while in a cab to meet her again. Our reunion was great and exceeded all of my expectations. We spent being on lockdown in our new place. Everything was perfect. When they eased the lockdown, I met some of her relatives. I immediately felt that I belonged. We shared drinks, got invited to their family gatherings, and even hosted their Christmas party last year. I really thought back then that everything was going as great as they can be. I wish I could've known what will happen next. A few months after that, we found a better place in our neighborhood. It was amazing. We immediately got it and moved in. So, the usual routine. Weekdays, we work at home and got our dinner outside. Weekends, we meet her parents or some of their relatives for a casual drink. Everything went like this until a few days ago.. Don't get me wrong, we've been in a few fights during this. Nothing really serious but I should've seen some signs and ran away as fast as I can. There was an instance where the fight got really bad and she threatened me that she'll hurt herself if I will not stay. I tried stopping her and got my finger clipped by a kitchen scissor in the process. She was in shock (due to the blood all over our floor) and got back to her senses immediately. She apologized and I thought it was just ok as long as she understands that this type of accident wouldn't happen if she'll act more rationally. I initially thought that her emotional blackmails would stop. They didn't. Only got worse. I tried calming her every single time. The end of our fights is usually the same: We fight, she'll blackmail me, hurt me physically in the process, then we'd make up. I know, I'm an idiot. This went on. Then just a few days ago, the worst thing happened. We were in her parents house to grab a couple of drinks and chat. They have some guests which I've already met a couple of times before. Out of nowhere, she went to a corner. I asked everyone where she was and I approached her. Asked her what was the problem then she suddenly started a fight. Asking me why I haven't introduced her to my parents yet. So, I answered that we're still new and I want to make sure that we're both sure before that happens. I cared so much about my mum and would like to introduce her only if we're sure where we are going with this. She immediately yelled: "Well, fuck your mum!". I whispered and gave her a chance to revert whatever she just said. She might have seen how furious I was and then she yelled: "Dad, he's gonna hurt me!". I was stunned. It felt like being wrongly accused of rape. I'm not perfect but I've never hit a girl before. She knew that. How? Because I told her that I'd rather break up with a girl than get violent. I meant that no matter how much they would hit me. I have no qualms with you if you think that this is BS. I'd doubt myself, too. Considering the things I just told you. Her dad immediately went to us. He asked what's wrong and she said that I was planning to hurt her. Being confused, stunned, and probably in shock - I kept quiet and just lowered my head. Clenching my hands, I was thinking nothing else. I just want to go. I just want to leave her. Then they ganged up on me, her dad, mum, and her. They actually made me feel that I was the bad guy. I can't even remember what they were telling me. I thought I got deaf for a while. All I can hear is white noise and my heartbeat. A few minutes after that, she insisted we go home. Her dad said that she should stay. When I heard that, I got a glimpse of hope to escape. I was thinking of packing my stuff immediately once I get back to our place and go somewhere else. Then, she shouted at her dad that she'd rather drive me home and get back. For some reason, they let her. I'm just done by then. On our drive back, she kept talking to me but I never understood or heard anything. I was in a daze. All I remembered was that we were already in the underground parking lot. I told her that I want to break up - I'm done. I even begged her if we can deal with this as adults. She went ballistic. Not thinking, I ran out of the car. She got back in the car and chased me in the parking lot. I hid behind some of the parked cars. She kept on shouting like an unhinged person. A few minutes later, the security guy came out of the elevator. Must have seen us in the cameras. As I don't want to create a scandal, I approached him and told him that she was just drunk. He radioed in that the person with her is there. I got confused. Was I the one they were after? A few seconds later, her dad got out of the elevator with another security guy. I just slumped there realizing what the actual fuck happened. They thought I was gonna hurt her. Her dad even came to her rescue and told me not to hurt her. I can only take so much for a night. Helpless, I complied to get back to our condo. Her dad left. I never talked. I never moved once we got back. I know that I'm fucked. When they left, she immediately shouted at me. Forcing me to get back with her. Threatening me that she'll kill herself if I don't. A few slaps here and there. More crying. I guess I don't even know what's going on anymore. At that point, I knew I was done. I gave up. But I'm not giving myself up to her whims. She told me again to watch her hang herself. I replied: "I don't care anymore. Go. My life is over anyway. Nobody would believe me.". She pretended to do it but didn't go ahead with it. After I saw that, I told myself that whatever happens next that I wouldn't care anymore. She's still here at my place. I refuse to talk to her. I can't leave. Even if there's a small indication that I'm about to leave, she panics. Believe it or not, she actually slept in our door last night just to make sure that I can't leave. I haven't eaten or taken a shower for a few days now. This is my form of protest. Not sure how long I'll last. Don't pity me, I beg you. I took a gamble. I held unto hope that things will get better. I thought that I can be with someone that I will grow to be with. I have no regrets either way Despite this, I would like to thank you for reading my long post. I'm not asking you for anything. Reading this is more than enough.
2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below: Funko (FNKO) Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97 Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86 Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14% Next Earnings Release: March 2021 Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties. Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021: · Increasing search traffic for Funko products · Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability · Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID · People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out · Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021 · Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity · Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019) Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020 After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4 · B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year. · Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020 · The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020 “We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes. Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company · Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020) · Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018) · As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales · Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory. · Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment. Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each · According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti. · With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15 PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home. · “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay · “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending · According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.” Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays · Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.” Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong · Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko > Overall comparable sales were up 17.2% > Comparable digital sales were up over 100% > Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2% > Store traffic was up 4.3% > Average ticket size was up 12.3% · GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales > Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020 > Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020 · According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic > A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019) > The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years. MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling · “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020 · The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019 > The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel > Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending · Concert spending is down dramatically > Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020 > About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3) · Movie theater attendance is down substantially > AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020 > Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue > Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue > Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy · Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending > Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy > Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000 > CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy > Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats > Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel. These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity · The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion · More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future · The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019 · Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020 · The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year. Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond · Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc. · Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom · Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia · Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious · TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons · Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE · Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc. Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in · For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores) COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends. · Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands. · Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream. ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12). · Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries. Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM) · Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales) · Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales) · Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales) Key Financial Trends For Funko · Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31 > Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million > Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94% > Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID > Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49% > Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.) · Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum. Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Positions: Long Shares & Calls Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier. Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates. Previous DD:Herman Miller
Hi all, To celebrate the return of Undervalued to the Reddit community, I decided to put together a quick DD and post it on a stock that I have had my eye on for a little while. It's still a "work-in-progress" and I may potentially update it later on Reddit with more information or detail if I have time at some point in the future. If you have any opinions, thoughts, or additional information, please share it. Positive. Negative. Neutral. All information is helpful and informative to the community. (I thought the feedback received from my first DD posted to this sub was quite helpful and I look forward to what you have to say.) Thank you to u/BuyLowSellNever for turning the sub back on; allowing us to share and discuss ideas with the broader community in a thoughtful and respectful manner. Best wishes. - LA Funko (FNKO) Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97 Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86 Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14% Next Earnings Release: March 2021 Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties. Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021: · Increasing search traffic for Funko products · Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability · Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID · People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out · Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021 · Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity · Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019) Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020 After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4 · B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year. · Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020 · The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020 “We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes. Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company · Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020) · Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018) · As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales · Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory. · Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment. Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each · According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti. · With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15 PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home. · “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay · “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending · According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.” Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays · Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.” Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong · Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko > Overall comparable sales were up 17.2% > Comparable digital sales were up over 100% > Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2% > Store traffic was up 4.3% > Average ticket size was up 12.3% · GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales > Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020 > Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020 · According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic > A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019) > The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years. MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling · “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020 · The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019 > The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel > Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending · Concert spending is down dramatically > Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020 > About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3) · Movie theater attendance is down substantially > AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020 > Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue > Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue > Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy · Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending > Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy > Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000 > CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy > Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats > Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel. These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity · The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion · More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future · The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019 · Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020 · The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year. Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond · Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc. · Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom · Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia · Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious · TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons · Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE · Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc. COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends. · Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands. · Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream. ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12). · Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries. Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM) · Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales) · Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales) · Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales) Key Financial Trends For Funko · Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31 > Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million > Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94% > Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID > Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49% > Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.) · Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum. Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Positions: Long Shares & Calls Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier. Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates. 2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here
2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below: Funko (FNKO) Share Price (02/01/21) : $12.90 Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86 Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14% Next Earnings Release: March 2021 Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties. Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021: · Increasing search traffic for Funko products · Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability · Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID · People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out · Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021 · Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity · Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019) Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020 After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4 · B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year. · Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020 · The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020 “We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes. Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company · Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020) · Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018) · As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales · Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory. · Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment. Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each · According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti. · With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15 PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home. · “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay · “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending · According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.” Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays · Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.” Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong · Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko > Overall comparable sales were up 17.2% > Comparable digital sales were up over 100% > Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2% > Store traffic was up 4.3% > Average ticket size was up 12.3% · GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales > Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020 > Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020 · According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic > A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019) > The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years. MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling · “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020 · The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019 > The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel > Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending · Concert spending is down dramatically > Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020 > About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3) · Movie theater attendance is down substantially > AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020 > Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue > Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue > Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy · Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending > Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy > Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000 > CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy > Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats > Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel. These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity · The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion · More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future · The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019 · Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020 · The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year. Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond · Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc. · Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom · Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia · Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious · TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons · Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE · Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc. Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in · For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores) COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends. · Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands. · Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream. ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12). · Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries. Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM) · Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales) · Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales) · Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales) Key Financial Trends For Funko · Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31 > Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million > Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94% > Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID > Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49% > Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.) · Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum. Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Positions: Long Shares & Calls Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier. Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates. Previous DD:Herman Miller
Well, I'm sure everyone has seen the news. The end of MassForTheDead is upon us. I started in early November. After doing all the story quests and some other things I ended up with only 3 5-star people, and sort of quit because the odds were horrible. I can't remember the exact number of rolls, but I saved every single Choas Stone. I quit around Thanksgiving, it isn't that the game isn't fun, but the odds were horrible and the prices made no sense. I will get into the problems with this game later, but eventually, I started back up before Xmas. I had better luck this time, while I didn't get any xmas people, but I had decent luck getting other 5-stars. It's a fun game, but it has many problems. As a developer, I somewhat expected it to fail, but I really was hoping that it wouldn't. I actually mentioned many of the reasons behind it in my review on google play. I shared my review with a few others, but I didn't actually make a post about it. However now I guess it's the last chance I get. I hope that the creators of MFTD see this... because many of these problems I feel almost anyone could come to the same conclusion as me.
NOTE: My language gets a little spicy, do forgive me for not being PC.
Online Only
One of the biggest problems with the game is it being online only. This means that if the game servers are shut down... simply the game doesn't work. Meaning if the game ends in 3 months (like now) everything you have to spend was pretty much wasted. It isn't like steam where you can buy and sell skins or items... you buy a digital product with the potential chance of it being taken away from you at any time. No one likes this... I would like to blame the devs, but typically it isn't them who make this decision. It's almost always someone higher up, but either way to be honest it was retarded. It should have been an offline game, are at least playable offline people wouldn't have felt so bad by buying stuff, since they could still use it after the servers are shut down.
Multiple Versions
Having multiple versions of the game is stupid. Simply stupid. It is already hard enough for developers to support Android, Apple, and say the web... but now they need to support Android (jp), Apple (jp), Android (globe), Apple (global). You rarely see this in western games... However, it is pretty common for Asian games. Rpgs especially almost always get a special global version. My only guess is because of location and language... however you should have designed your app to work with multiple languages. This is web dev 101, you space things out or have scroll bars or cut it off with a popup to give the full name or details. There are tons of ways around this... It's the same story with locations, you should have designed the online game from the ground up to be usable with multiple servers. I don't want to go on forever about this, but it's basic things. Just add multiple languages, that was it. All you needed to do, yet tons of games every year get a "global" version just for it to die a few years later. STOP IT. Make 1 version, with servers globally. Not enough people in Germany?... shut that server down and move them to another server. Sorry for the rant on this part, I've played at least 20 games they forced you to play the global version and ended up shutting it down after a year or 2. Honestly, at as dev it drives me crazy they do this. People don't care you have a special ____ holiday or whatever... AWESOME, cool you have a holiday about some cucumber god, ok let us play it, we don't need a second version. I guess what I'm trying to get at... Crunchyroll shouldn't have been involved in the first place. Maybe as translators, but AAAaaah fuck me dude, why do they keep doing this?
Worse than Gambling...
You buy "chaos stones", which give you a chance to roll for people in the game. Aka gambling, but instead of getting a chance for money, you get a digital item that could disappear at any moment when they shut the game down. At least with gambling, you have a slim chance of getting your money back. There have been many countries trying to put regulations on loot boxes in games... I'm pretty sure this game would eventually fall into that category. If they are not forced to change it, at the very least they will probably make it 18+ or the local equivalent. Some countries have been trying to force similar taxes onto these types of apps that casinos have to deal with. Potentially they are going to run into an issue with this game because of the random aspect. They continue to make it worse by having "free" Choas Stones mixed with "paid" Chaos Stones. Honestly, I'm surprised some mom hasn't created a Facebook group about how it's tricking their children. Anyway, I don't care about this, but it is something to note, that this will probably be brought up against them later on. I know some people will probably argue saying baseball cards, or pokemon cards are similar... however you are getting a physical object. You have it forever, you can sell it, trade it, lick it. It's yours forever. Yes, they are both random chances, but as I explained above... at any moment you could lose it. I could go on with other things, but I'm ranting, so we will leave this here.
Price
... do I have to explain this. The prices are INSANE, let's just forget about it being something you could lose at any moment or the random chance. There are many packs and things for $32.99. Let's look at one. 515 paid stones plus some other stuff. That is 1 roll or ten items... WHAT?!? Look at any other game, even the MOST money-hungry games like Clash of Clash or Fortnite are 1/4 of this price... and they are games that have been around for years, with tons of content, and tons of game play, and large player bases. It's like paying $30 goto a movie... or $15 to goto another movie at a better theater, that also in 3d. Don't get me wrong... I LOVE OVERLORD. I love it, I read at least 2 novels a month... but the prices for MFTD are just crazy. Personally, I bought VIP, I think that it's a decent price to support the game and help them developed it... but to be honest for $20 you don't shit. I understand they need to make money, but I 100% guarantee if they cut the price in half, they would more than double their sales. Many of the people reading overlord are younger in high school or college... I can't imagine they are looking forward to throwing down $32 for a roll at 10 cards? (or whatever you call it)... however $16? it far more reasonable. How many of would have bought a "pack" for $16 yet didn't because it was $32? I'm an old (not really old, 31), and I didn't because it's a ripoff. I just feel like I'm getting bent over around back.
Summary / Horrible
LMAO, guys... honestly this game I love it. I love Overlord, but some of the ideas behind it were horrible. It isn't just 1 of them... but when you add them up all altogether I knew it wasn't going to last long. What is even worse... they announced they are closing the game down... YET you can still buy shit. YOU CAN STILL BUY DIGITAL ITEMS that will be gone in 2 months. WHAT THE FUCK?!? Am I'm crazy, or is this just me or is this a total douchebag move? They don't force you to see the notification, nothing pops up... just a quiet little whisper "psst, the game ends April". I will admit, they are at least shutting it down in march... Do they are not a complete scumbag... However, it should have been locked the moment they announced the ending of this game. People love this game, they are dedicated to it. They have spent thousands of hours grinding just to save up for the new stuff coming out next week. I'm sure there are people who just bought stuff yesterday... What is even worse, I'm pretty sure someone knew about this at least a week ago. I can't imagine some CEO just say, yea I'm done, lets tell them today the game ends. There were meetings, discussions, multiple companies involved... probably a public relations person who spend a day to come up with that announcement. I'm going to end it here, while I wasn't surprised I wish it continued or was offline as its a fun little game to play throughout the day.
Here's the update, typed as he was talking, apologies if I missed anything. NO FURTHER SHUTDOWNS ANNOUNCED! Pause is EXTENDED through 1/15/2021.
Situation: We are at a critical point and here is why.
Encouraging news on vaccine: FDA granted emergency use. Western States panel approved.
First vaccine shipment on Monday, frontline healthcare workers to get immediate vaccination.
Did a test run for vaccine delivery process, will keep Nevadans posted.
Dr. Fauci predicted a surge on top of a surge, that's where Nevada is headed.
We are just now beginning to see the effects of the holidays. Small decline in cases and testing over the holiday, big surges now.
Seeing big increases in hospitalizations, 1700 Nevadans since Friday.
In Southern Nevada we have NOT peaked yet.
Protecting healthcare infrastructure is the main priority. Setting up hospitals in parking garages just in case.
No doubt our hospitals are seeing an increase in strain, as well as actual healthcare workers.
COVID deaths on the rise. 2539 Nevadans dead.
Statewide pause summary, talked about mitigation, capacity limits, etc.
As of November 30th, 74% Nevadans wore masks when leaving home. If we were at 95% compliance we would save more lives by Spring.
Noted that Nevadans are under stress, worried about health, jobs, school. Wants everyone to do what we can to reduce strain on hospitals.
EXTENDING CURRENT NEVADA PAUSE THROUGH JANUARY 15TH, NO ANNOUNCED SHUTDOWNS.
All current restrictions are still in place.
Sisolak says that if his health officials see cases rise more, he will shut more things down.
Sign an eviction moratorium in place tomorrow to protect Nevadans, through March 31st.
Better to leave Nevadans in homes versus in shelters and homelessness.
When people are evicted it becomes impossible to stay home, they will be forced outside and potentially spread COVID-19.
Talked about how tenants are still obligated to pay rent. Talked about rental assistance programs. Supported with federal assistance dollars, funds are low though.
Realizes this will be hard on landlords, asking landlords to continue to sacrifice and do more to help tenants. Promises to look into assistance for landlords.
Vaccine on the horizon, please continue to be strong. Fight the virus, not each other.
Says not a day goes by that he doesn't think about lives and our economic structure.
Acknowledges that we have record cases, but realizes that families are suffering, with little financing assistance.
Claims no winning options, picked whatever option hurts Nevadans the least.
Federal government has yet to grasp the complexity of our situation. Federal government says that states are not doing enough. Sisolak admits mitigation policies, our complete shutdown, would be best. However without funding and paying Nevadans to stay home, is not realistic. Says shutdowns don't work without people getting paid.
State is trying desperately to balance health and economy.
Families are teetering on the brink. We have lost 250,000 jobs, NV had highest unemployment rate in the country.
142,000 Nevadans have exhausted their UI benefits, won't be able to file again until March 2021, says NV needs more federal help.
State of Nevada had a savings account, a rainy day fund, which was their safety net. As of today, there is no more money. No more rainy day fund. CARES Act funding ends at the end of the year.
According to our state economist, another shutdown will put us in a just as bad or worse state than the Great Depression.
Says that if he could write a check to pay everyone, he would, but can't.
Gaming industry. Under the same or tougher restrictions as everyone else. Gaming Control Board is the most regulated business in the state.
When he thinks of the gaming industry, he loses sleep because under a state at home order, NV lost 250,000 jobs. Cooks, dealers, valet, entertainers, etc.
Gaming matters in this state. If we shut down again, state loses $52 million in tax revenue a month. That same revenue supports Nevadans, health, benefits, the safety we need. That's why he has kept the casinos open.
(Side note: so basically, casinos need to be open so that the state can fund UI and benefits for the State)
This week it was reported that NV has seen a 50% increase in opioid and drug death. Does not believe its a coincidence.
People won't be healthy if they lose their job, benefits, housing, etc.
Relied on the science and health officials to make decisions.
COVID-19 is the first and last thing he thinks about every day.
Praises healthcare workers for their sacrifices.
Says his blood boils when the federal government says that States do not do enough.
Says that everyone is stepping up, task force has gotten millions of masks and PPE. Had to do it themselves versus rely on the federal government.
Says federal government promised PPE, but help never came.
Invites McConnell to look at the hospital wards, foreclosed homes, to look at all affected Nevadans when he said citizens did not need the extra help.
Compromise is hard, but possible if both sides toss politics aside.
We must figure things out on our own, if not, more shutdowns will be forced.
Vaccine is on the way. Stay strong. Says he has made the best decision for our state all things considered.
Called upon all Nevadans to come together, again, to do this.
If we cannot control cases, he will impost further restrictions.
We are all frontline people, tired, worn out, ready to give up. We have a choice to think of things as every man for themselves, or to support each other and have each others backs.
Look after each other. Love our neighbors.
We face all challenges together. Nevada will make it through this. The end result will be based on how much we care for each other.
A Nevadan is testing positive every 40 seconds. 1 hour and 15 minutes a Nevadan dies.
Please, protect yourselves and one another by wearing a mask, washing hands, and socially distance.
Affirm: "I am possessing it now" and persist until you feel the relief of possession. Then go about your business, knowing that in a way you know not of, you will be led to the fulfillment of what you did within yourself!
Give thanks for it to the point that you are grateful for having already received it – then go about your way in peace.
Why? Relief and gratitude imply acceptance of the wish fulfilled. He talks about this in the “1948 Q&A”:
When I speak of feeling I do not mean emotion, but acceptance of the fact that the desire is fulfilled. Feeling grateful, fulfilled, or thankful, it is easy to say, "Thank You," "Isn't it wonderful!" or "It is finished." When you get into the state of thankfulness, you can either awaken knowing it is done, or fall asleep in the feeling of the wish fulfilled.
And (in the same session), emphasizes that is the only thing you have to do:
You are relieved of that responsibility. You do not have to make it a reality, it already is! Although your concept of self seems so far removed from the venture you now contemplate, it exists now as a reality within you... The only sacrifice you are called upon to make, is to give up your present concept of self and appropriate the desire you want to express.
Last week discovered that a lot of my internal dialog contains an air of… dissatisfaction with something in my life. I haven’t fully given up my present concept of self in many ways. So I’m going to purposefully fill my head with an immense amount of gratitude in hopes to cut all that out. Specifically I am:
Meditating for 45 minutes a day (holiday season makes it hard to find dedicated quiet time lol).
Writing 200-point lists of gratitude a day. (context: this was double my daily goal of 100 per day, so this wasn't as "extreme" to me as it might seem. If you are just starting out, I recommend 10 things. It's hard at first. But it does get easier.)
Have 3 10-minute “gratitude sessions” where I focus on feeling immensely fulfilled and relieved.
Since I had done this sort of experiment before (quite a bit ago, before I started posting these publicly), it was nice to compare and contrast my two separate experiments. The moral of the story here is: the more you practice, the easier it becomes. Focus If I had some negative thought, I’d meditate on it to dissolve it. But otherwise, being gracious, relieved, and otherwise in a good mood. Thoughts If I learned anything this week, it’s that I have changed a lot more than I thought I have. The meditations felt short (most of my sessions tend to be much longer than 45 minutes, so this makes sense lol). I ended up holding my “extreme gratitude” states for waaaaaaay longer than 10 minutes. The gratitude lists took a bit of time to get used to, but after a few days it wasn’t difficult to find 200 things I liked in a given day. This was not true the last time I did this two months ago. Everything felt like effort. Shifting states took effort. Being grateful took effort. Meditating took effort. All felt like work. I would eventually get the hang of it, but I had to "earn" it in some way. But… now it actually is pretty effortless? You could literally walk up to me and say “u/chocolate-trains, be happy” and I could generate that feeling in seconds. Seriously. I guess this is a long-winded way of saying I really didn’t try very hard to do any of the things I set out to do, yet I was more successful than I expected. So I spent a bit of time thinking about the cumulative effect of all the work that we do mentally. And, dear God, nothing you’ve ever done was wasted, I promise. Even those “failed” attempts taught you powerful lessons about what you are working with internally. And, since all you are doing is manipulating yourself, this self-gained knowledge is so useful. Even if you know you have some beliefs you don’t like, you’ll eventually figure out ways to navigate around them and move past them. And what states weaken or eliminate them (and, just as important imo, what states don't). Even if those beliefs don’t immediately fade the first time you tackle them, those beliefs can (and will, if you persist) die. And the increased faith overtime makes the whole process happen more quickly (because you hold concepts like “consciousness is the only reality” as more fundamental as anything else you currently know, weakening the strength of those unwanted beliefs). That faith + generally mastering your moods/reactions is what makes magic happen. That’s why persistence is key. To use the gardening analogy, if you sow enough seeds of plants that you like and continually neglect/cut out the weeds that you don’t, you’ll eventually have a beautiful garden, regardless of how disgusting and overgrown the land was initially. And, even if some weeds resurface they are much faster to cut down, because you are a better gardener with each attempt. This concept is summed up beautifully in one of his radio lectures:
Sow an imaginary conversation, you reap an act; Sow an act, you reap a habit; Sow a habit, you reap a character; Sow a character, you reap your destiny.
Y’know, a lot of focus is often put on manipulating one’s imaginal conversations/acts to instill good habits that will change one’s destiny. Not a lot of focus is put on how that changes your character imo (at least in Neville's work, I suppose we get plenty of that in the main sub lol). Not only do you get the thing you want, but you become the person who gets that thing. And, if you keep persisting, you eventually become the person who always “happens” to get that thing. It’s more readily seen in an example. Compare the individual who does SATS to win money at the casino vs. the person who “just so happens to be lucky” all the time and gambles for fun. With more experiences, the individual who has to “work” to enter that “lucky, I-win-all-the-time” state will find themselves in enough situations that demonstrate their loyalty to this state (winning more contests, finding money everywhere, etc.) that they won’t feel the “need” to do SATS anymore. Because they’ve become the person who embodies that “lucky” state. That state has become their resting place and does the work for them. So, once again, it’s about your self-concept (because it will never not be about your self-concept). I just think the power of your self-concept is understated at times (I'm not talking about the self-esteem aspect of self-concept, but concept of self all beliefs, assumptions, ideas consented to) as a whole, which includes (but is not limited to) self-esteem). Too focused on specific manifestations and not enough on how it impacts you as a whole imo. Not taking a comprehensive view when looking at your beliefs is like an artist who can only draw eyes. There is a reason why Neville describes consciousness as being “the sum total of all of [your] beliefs”. You’d be surprised at just how interwoven all your beliefs are, once you really start examining them. And once you make headway in one area of your life, everything begins to change. To go back to the previous example, if the person manifesting luck isn't paying attention to the other ways they demonstrate the state of "luck" in their life and/or see SATS at the thing manifesting (and not themselves using a tool to assist in manifesting), then getting to that permanent "yeah, I'm just lucky" state is an uphill battle. But if they successfully plant themselves squarely in the state of being lucky, and they know THEY are the cause of their own luck, then you can imagine how differently they'd see life in general and not just at the casino. Which makes attaining different states (say, relationships) much easier, because they have a helpful belief that they can fall back on (I always find the right partners because I'm so lucky). Assumptions make up your entire life. All of them, working in tandem, to make what you see before you. So, that's why I take a holistic view when changing assumptions. I give attention to both general and specific beliefs. I hope you can see how useful that is. It’s one thing to use manifestation to fix problems as they come up. It’s another thing entirely to have such a solid belief system that these problems never come up in the first place. And that state (of things always happening in my favor) is something I’m quite interested in lately. And the results of me continually seeing the world from that perspective are really paying off. So, yeah. I’ve reaped a whole damn character and it feels so fucking natural to be this way. Isn’t that cool? Lol (future edit: I got a little preachy here for no particular reason, but the point still stands imo. One of the easiest ways to change a lot of things quickly is to simply change how you view yourself (self-concept) in relation to your world. I 100% also believe that changing your assumptions about other things is necessary, but the most permanent changes I’ve seen in my life have come from building + fortifying my basic “I AM” beliefs.) Best Manifestations [I feel like it’s kinda lame to just list off the gifts I got for Christmas, so these are just the conscious manifestations. But it was a good week for gifts, trust me lol]
Here’s a fun game you can play to test your skills: decide what gift someone will give you (for Christmas, birthday, doesn’t matter). Be specific about the person and the gift. If the person in question asks you what you want, do not tell them what you decided they would bring you. What you tell them doesn’t matter, because you already made your decision. Got a really nice set of headphones, and a rainbow keyboard + mouse set that way.
While I was wrapping gifts, I dropped an Instant Pot lid on my right foot. Left a nice, large bruise on it and couldn’t move for a while (it wasn’t broken, just hurt like hell). I had someone bring me some pain meds while I laid down and started revising. Revised for an hour, then the meds kicked in and I could move around more and just go about my business.
I’m fine for the most part. Just slightly sore sometimes, but that’s nothing Ibuprofen can’t handle. Interestingly enough, the bruise on my foot disappeared within hours of my revision. It was a pretty dark bruise too. So that’s cool lol. (future edit: in my experience pain is hard to revise/ignore if I don’t have the resources to focus my energy on ignoring it. I have done so, but Ibuprofen is easier than that lol) Best State Changes
Decreased reliance on the 3D world to determine my mood. On Christmas eve, I set a timer to see how long it would take me to feel 15 minutes of gratitude with no negative thoughts. Well, I only got distracted by negative thoughts three times, about 30 seconds each. I had tried this same thing two months ago (October 25, shortly before I started doing these public diary entries). And I got distracted by negative thoughts twelve times. See the screenshots before and after.
This ability to have control over your mood is incredibly useful. Like, say, when you drop heavy shit on yourself lol. It doesn’t devastate you, so it’s easier to focus on what you want instead. Final Thoughts Honest to God, have you ever taken the time to appreciate how far you’ve come? And all the good qualities you’ve nurtured? Like the courage required to hold belief in the face of contradictions? Or the confidence required to believe in faith as your foundation? How ambitious you become when you have more successful experiences? The persistence, dedication, and tenacity required to keep going back to the state when you falter? Or just one’s increased belief in faith, hope, and love in general? Or even just taking the time to appreciate how powerful you are? Every time you lift yourself out of an unwanted state, you have exercised your power. Every time you choose to focus on your imagination instead of what’s around you, you have exercised your power. Every time you do anything that asserts the desired state as fact, you have exercised your power. Attention alone is power. Things wither and die through indifference. They are kept alive through attention.. You are powerful. Self-celebration is really underrated. And, if you are thinking about doing gratitude lists, that definitely comes in handy. All that rambly shit above is easily 10 different things to be grateful for lol. (future edit: seriously though, self-appreciation has saved my ass so many times when I’m in a bad mood for no reason. And it’s fun to feel like you’re a good person.) (and one last final thought, unrelated but important) When I first started getting into the “gratitude” mindset, some of the things I was happy about would have horrible things happen to them. I didn’t understand why until I watched the language I used when describing my appreciation for these things. Instead of focusing on the attributes I liked, I focused on how heartbroken I would be if I didn’t have X thing because I liked it that much. You can imagine how well that went lol. Be aware of what you are giving attention to (and how you give that attention), as often as possible. That makes making effective changes much easier.
2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here Hi everyone. Funko is a great stock that I believe will do well this year. Internet search traffic for Funko has been increasing and is at all-time highs over the last couple of months. The company is selling more of their toys directly to customers through their e-commerce shop (which allows them to capture higher retail revenues than wholesale revenues). And demand for collectibles and toys continues to be strong. Here is a DD I wrote on the company below. I would love to get your thoughts. Funko (FNKO) Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97 Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86 Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14% Next Earnings Release: March 2021 Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties. Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021: · Increasing search traffic for Funko products · Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability · Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID · People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out · Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021 · Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity · Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019) Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020 After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4 · B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year. · Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020 · The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020 “We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes. Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company · Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020) · Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018) · As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales · Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory. · Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment. Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each · According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti. · With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15 PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home. · “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay · “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending · According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.” Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays · Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.” Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong · Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko > Overall comparable sales were up 17.2% > Comparable digital sales were up over 100% > Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2% > Store traffic was up 4.3% > Average ticket size was up 12.3% · GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales > Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020 > Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020 · According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic > A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019) > The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years. MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling · “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020 · The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019 > The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel > Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending · Concert spending is down dramatically > Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020 > About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3) · Movie theater attendance is down substantially > AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020 > Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue > Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue > Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy · Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending > Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy > Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000 > CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy > Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats > Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel. These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity · The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion · More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future · The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019 · Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020 · The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year. Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond · Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc. · Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom · Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia · Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious · TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons · Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE · Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc. COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends. · Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands. · Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream. ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12). · Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries. Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM) · Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales) · Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales) · Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales) Key Financial Trends For Funko · Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31 > Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million > Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94% > Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID > Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49% > Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.) · Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum. Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Positions: Long Shares & Calls Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier. Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
I turn 20 IN 3 hours, but I want to leave some parting advice of things I’ve learnt through my teenage years.
As the title says I’m turning 20 years old. I have learned a lot being a teenager, it’s the prime of our lives, it’s where we finish secondary school, get our first part-time job, choose a university, or leave school and get a full-time job. Personally, I have learnt a lot, most of it is from my own experiences but I wish someone else had told me earlier on before I found out for myself. I wouldn’t say I’m leaving this sub forever; I’ll give myself the “old” tag and give advice where I think I could be of help. I would still like to write the bulk of what I’ve learned here to help you. 1. I see a lot of posts about mental health and suicide and you need to know it’s okay not to be okay. Help is out there I love helping people I enjoy it, so please message me if you need help. I to have felt depressed at times, one major thing about me is that I care too much about what people think about me, if someone has a problem I want to know why. If you’re like this too learn to let things roll of your back and ignore them. 2. Stop worrying about relationships at 13 to 16 years old, at the time of writing this I haven’t had a girlfriend yet nor anything even close, nothing lasted more than a night 2 days at the most. We will all find someone at some point. I have thought about losing my virginity to a prostitute, it might fun, and I shouldn’t regret it, but I probably would. 3. Do well in school, one of my biggest regrets is being too busy trying to be the funny popular guy trying to be everyone’s friend, I failed at both having a huge circle of friends and failed school as well. 4. Your school grades don’t define who you are. There are plenty of options for you to take and still do what you want to do but doing as well as you can in school will make doing what you want easier. 5. Get a part time job once you are old enough. Even if it a volunteer job it will give you much needed work experience that will help you eventually get a paid job. Also looks good on a university application. Try and avoid customer service for your first! 6. Save up your money. I understand once you start working you might be tempted to spend your money on new games or PC upgrades I know I was, and that’s ok, it’s nice to treat ourselves every so often, however even putting just £50 aside each month into a savings account will help massively for when you wish to buy a car, pay for university or pay for when you decide to go on holiday with friends after you finish school and help you get a property for when you wish to move out. 7. If you know what to do you could invest your money in stocks, I wish I’d known to do that sooner, if you can invest £100 each month into shares over a few months or years your portfolio will grow and hopefully if you bought the right shares could make some sweet profit. 8. Carrying on from number 3. Use this time while you’re still at home to travel, I live in the UK so after we did A levels (I did engineering Btec) after saving up for about 2 years my friends and I were able to go interrailing (backpacking as the Americans call it!) through Europe for 4 weeks. But only do this with friends that you know you can have fun with. The people I went with didn’t enjoy going out to clubs and getting drunk as much as I do, so I wish I had gone with people I could do that with. 9. if it, it’s too good to be true it usually is 10. your Parents don’t always know best, if you want to follow a career path and your parents don’t agree do it, you will regret it. Thankfully I have parents that support me in whatever I do, but I know people that do. 11. Don’t hang around people who aren’t your friends. Fake people are the worst people, people like this will uses you, manipulate you and lie to you. 12. It is ok to have no friends, there is a difference between being alone and being lonely. Eventually you will find a small social crowds with whom you will do everything with. 13. As Chris Gardner once said Plan B and C are rubbish, stick to your plan A and you will succeed. 14. People don’t always change; some do I am completely different now than 2 years ago. But some people I was at school with are the same, they are the same dickhead who likes to be funny by putting others down, people like that are stuck in their own little world to scared to realize that they have been left behind due to still being immature. 15. As I said in 11 and 4 if you don’t have fun you will regret it, I promise you, one of the friends I went with told me he regrets not smoking weed in Amsterdam or getting drunk on £1 beers in Budapest and wants to go again to have the experience he didn’t. Life is fun enjoy it while you can. 16. You will probably have that night where you go to a party or a night out in town where you’ll drink too much and get beyond the point of wasted, at the time you’ll feel like shit and regret it but after time for me it was a year it becomes something you and your friends laugh at especially when they tell you all the things you can’t remember. 17. “In game theory, it serves you to be two-faced. Be everyone's friend 'til the moment you're not. Make them love you so much that when they're up against you, their own loyalty will act against their own self-interests”. That's game theory. This was taken from one of my favourite TV series prison break. And I think it perfectly describes social interaction between teenagers and young adults. People will use you and you will use people even when that wasn’t your intention. I’ve been used by people id call my closest friends some did it intentionally some not. 18. Find a hobby there is no such thing as an odd or weird hobby, it allows you to find a common interest with people allowing you to make new friends and meet people, when I turned 18 my hobby was cigars, I’d go to various cigar lounges around London and meet people obviously they were older but the best thing about a cigar is the great conversation that comes with it. That’s just my opinion. 19. You will most likely regret the things you didn’t do not the things you did. Don’t dwell on the past and your previous mistakes focus on the present and the future. If there is someone you fancy, ask them out what’s the worst that will happen? They might say yes worst case they say no. but at least you tried. 20. At a nightclub or festival where your surrounded by people you don’t know, never except a drink from anyone if it wasn’t poured out Infront of you. First time I went clubbing I excepted a drink of champagne from someone I didn’t know in one of London’s busiest clubs I was lucky that it was fine. 21. Never shake someone’s hand sitting down and always grip firmly and make eye contact. 22. In a negation never make the first offer. 23. Take the time to talk to a homeless person, they sometimes have the most interesting stories and lessons to teach. Everyone falls on hard times, someone I spoke to was a veteran and ended up losing his home. 24. Friends come and go 25. Never stop in the pursuit of happiness 26. Loneliness isn’t forever. The most popular person may also feel alone. 27. It might not be a good life, but it’s your life so live it. 28. You can never please everyone, live for yourself and not others I know this is a long post but below I’ve left a summary of all the things I’ve done and experienced being a teenager (2012 – 2021) 11-12: Started secondary school where I made new friends and experienced a whole new environment including no more packed lunches. 12-13: Another year of secondary school, made it into the higher level classes for science and IT, at this point I started to experience bullying for the first time from the same person I was friends with the year before, I also entered my schools coding competition where we competed against the neighbouring school in who could create the best game on scratch. During this year I re-kindled a past friendship with someone from primary school whom I drifted apart from. We remain close to this day. (He won the coding competition with a moon landing game). Joined my school’s car mechanics club too. 13-14 3rd year of school, the bullying started getting worse. Applied for the bronze Duke of Edinburgh award ( for the non-brits here it’s an award scheme where the participant has to take part in volunteering, something physical a skill and finally a hiking expedition) no you don’t get to meet prince philip until you complete the gold award too. Picked my GCSE options. Had my first real crush (this was a fiasco in itself) as well as had my first kiss with someone else (another awful experience). 14-15 Aight cool year 10, time to start my GCSE studies and think about the future. The bullying reached its peak I lost it tried to fight him failed sort of, I got a few punched in before teachers came and pulled us apart, spent the rest of that day and the whole next day internal exclusion room, him too. (was oddly fun ngl), might I add that even the headteacher was aware of the bullying and didn’t care neither did the pastoral manager who when I told her about the first time told me to go away and grow up. Completed my Silver Duke of Edinburgh award. I never completed the last level (gold). 15-16 Woo last year of high school time to sit the exams that so many people think will ruin their lives if they fail. Yes the best you do will allow you to go on and do better things like a good university or doing the A levels you want, but it won’t stop you getting the career you want, you will just need to take a different path to get there like I did. Towards the summer I was getting ready to go on Israel tour my first time away from home for more than a week and to a new country without my family. For those of you that don’t know what Israel tour is, it is when you go to the state of Israel for 3 weeks maybe more depending on the tour organiser and see various sites such as the western wall, dead sea, Masada, ride camels in the desert, live on an army base for a few days as part of a small boot camp type thing (my favourite part) and much, much more. On this though I sadly realised that some people can’t be trusted and will stab you in the back, my “friend” liked the same person I did and instead of saying something to me he just spoke shit about me to her. 16-17 Secondary school, been there done that got the fucking t shirt. After not doing as well as I expected to in my GCSE exams, I had to change my plan slightly. I wanted to go into forensic science to do this I wanted to study level 3 Btec in applied science, but because I had failed 2 of my exams (the important ones) I had to do a level 2 course instead (same subject but lower level) during this year being in a new environment from the last I bought and smoked weed for the first time as well as getting my first hangover. During this year I was able to re sit my exams I passed 1 but still failed the other. I realised that the subject I was doing was no longer my passion. I got my first part time job as a receptionist so I could build my first gaming PC. My other close mate: after helping him meet his first girlfriend which by this point was at the 8- or 9-months mark, the 2 of them wanted to help me find someone. After fancying the same girl for the last 3 years at this point they introduced me to someone else, we were all away on a summer camp together so after being introduced we got talking for the next 4 whole days became really close only for on the last night before the big party for her friend to talk shit about me to her (seems to be a pattern here). A week later I had my second snog (kiss, make out, get with) with someone else (whatever u want to call it), this one was decent this happened to me on the NCS award (national citizen service) it’s like the Duke of Edinburgh award. 17-18 As I said before science was no longer what I wanted to do, so I changed to engineering at a new college (community college for the Americans). As I still didn’t have a C grade or above in my remaining GCSE exam, I had to do another level 2 course to pass. I got a new job as a waitekitchen assistant. started talking to another girl who in many ways she was a female version of me, we agreed on everything and got on well had so much in common it was unreal. My mate sadly broke up with his girlfriend so he was on the market too looking for someone else, I suggested to him that for his 18th he should throw a massive party, he agreed. I saw it as the perfect opportunity to make a move on the girl I was talking too; so, I invited her as my plus one. I got to his house early to help setup the house, she arrived about an hour later. I made a poor miss judgment that night and drunk about half a bottle of Russian standard vodka (no mixers). Being my drunk self I stumbled over to her and we began talking, then guess who comes over to us the same girl who cock blocked me previously and she does the god damn same, I have to admit me being as drunk as I was at That point definitely didn’t help. As you could I lost my shit at the person who yet again ruined something for me I went off on one in front of the whole goddamn party by this point the full force of my drinking hit me, I was unrollable cursing at the bitch who for the second time ruined something I had with someone. By this point the girl I invited left early, and my parents were called to pick me up. FYI the party stared at 8 I was home by 9 30 passed out. The girl I invited never spoke to me again I tried to apologise she didn’t really want much to do with me (understandable). My 18th I went clubbing for the first time and experienced a casino for the first time (played blackjack with £25 walked out with £120(I don’t encourage gambling, only play with what you can afford to lose)). The night club itself was something I didn’t enjoy all too much, main reason being there was only a few of us and the club was full of much older crowd than us, drinks where a fortune too, it was fun I enjoyed being out in the capital with my close mates at that time. It’s all about finding clubs that offer student nights where the crowd will be younger. Summertime, before the majority from my year head to university they all host a second school prom a reunion. This night again I learnt that people can and will be 2 faced if it serves them better. A girl who my mate had been helping me get talking to decided that the night before prom at a separate party he would make out with her himself (I was fine with that; I wasn’t at that party). I got invited to pre-drinks at this girls house the minute I walked in something felt off, it wasn’t until later I knew why; I found out my mate had made out with her the night before, unexpectedly he apologised to me (he didn’t need to, however I told him it was fine and move on) I was still hoping to get with her. 20 minutes later Infront of me the same mate of mine and the same girl were making out again (now I was pissed, first you apologise and then 20 minutes later do it Infront of me and everyone making me look like a mug). And again he apologises I played the bigger man held myself back from sparking him in the face and said that once is a mistake, 2 times is a slap in the face) this mate of mine was coming traveling with me 3 days later we didn’t speak until then. I went interrailing (traveling) through Europe with 4 mates that summer. 18-19 What was supposed to be my first year at university turned out to be another year at community college. This was also the start of where things got bad for me, by this point all my friends have had some sexual experience except me. My social crowd at this point is dwindling slowly at the time I didn’t notice I was just being left out more, (looking back, with some of my friends I was a background friend). I was finally on level 3 Btec engineering and have finally passed my last exam that I needed (took 4 attempts but if at first you don’t succeed try, try again). 19-20 (Present) Ok things are bad, I’ve realised that only 2 of my close mates are my only friends ( I walk a lonely road, the only one that I have ever known, don’t know where it goes but its home to me, I walk alone). I knew for a while since the previous summer that most of the people I trust and call my friends don’t care about me. I only ever spoke to them If I was lucky enough to be invited out on the rare occasion (I would usually have to be the one to make the effort). I wanted to rid of the people who don’t care about me, I never thought for a second 2 of my other close mates (separate from the ones I mentioned in 19-20, they will always be my close mates) would be the ones to go first. One of these mates was someone who I had so many memorise with, we went clubbing together, wingmen for each other, I allowed him to get off with someone at my house while I was asleep in the same room (didn’t know until the morning); and now since the start of the coronavirus pandemic we haven’t spoken or seen one another and is telling people it’s my fault. (he and many others know that if I have done something to upset someone I will always be happy to fix it, I hate beefing with people) I realised he didn’t care for me no more, the memories we had together meant so much to me and nothing to him, he’s part of a new social crowd most of them I know and have also tried to get close with but I was never able to. I know I did something wrong to make all these people pull away from me I just don’t know what, I run so many possible reasons through my head but none make sense or seem big enough to make to a huge social crowd no longer want me around (popularity baffles me, it’s one thing I’ve never been nor able to understand). Now in my FINAL year of college and looking at either looking at going to university to study either Aerospace or Electronics engineering, getting an apprenticeship or I may join the army or the royal air force. I kind of wish I studied law. All I really want for my self is a job I’m proud of, something that when someone asks what I do for a living I can tell them and not be embarrassed or ashamed and not have to lie or exaggerate about it. However, before coronavirus hit the UK badly, I started a new part time job in retail pays very well for what it is, and I get nice bonuses I still managed to keep it through the lockdown. Been predicted high grades for my course more than enough for my university choices and the apprenticeships schemes I want. As I said at the beginning, this isn’t goodbye. I’ll still be here offering advice where I see fit giving my wisdom to those who need it. Also, if any of you need to talk or any advice drop me a message on here and I’ll try my best to help. “life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all” -u/randomhuman_23 Edit: i hope this doesn't get lost in new
Casinos generally use surveillance to look out for criminals who prey on tourists and the cheaters. And, yes, Derk says they can actually zoom in on your cards if they wanted to. A machine cannot be programmed to pay out better at certain times of the day. States require that the odds on each spin be the same, and that would not be possible if the machine paid out better at certain times. Best of luck in and out of the casinos, John Most companies (whether or not it's a casino) have several "paid holidays". Usually this includes Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years, and a few other federal holidays. If you work, you also get paid for working, but it is still regular time for the day you work. In effect, you get one full days pay more than the people who don't work. Many experts say that the day of the week is of no importance in predicting winnings for slot machine play. John Robison, author of "The Slot Expert's Guide to Playing Slots," says that the odds are the same no matter what time you choose to play. Casinos are designed to make money just like any business. The slot machines are a big piece of the profit puzzle so the casinos do everything they can to make them more profitable. Now that you know these 15 slot machine secrets the casinos don’t want you to know you can gamble as an informed player. I guess that’s realistic, so I never try to talk anyone out of that attitude. Personally, I walk into a casino every time expecting to win a fortune. That’s happened to me only a few times, if a $9,000 jackpot is a fortune. But I have a hopeful attitude. I admit that I’m comfortable in casinos—I’ve been to more than 100 over 25 years. Do casinos pay more at the end of the month or the middle of the month? . I will be going to take a guess on this because I do not know much about how the casino works at all. (LOL). I am going to explain on how the casino works when money involve... Ten Things You Might Not Know About Casinos . Casinos use thousands of cameras. While older casinos like the Cal-Neva in Reno didn't bother with camera coverage for all of their table games as little as 20 years ago, modern casinos have so many cameras that the surveillance staff, as large as it might be, can't even watch all the views. Now, even if the casino could make the machines pay out less when the casino is crowded, would that necessarily mean that no patrons would need the cage? Would more players go broke and therefore not need to redeem a ticket, or would those players just hit their loss limits sooner or lose more money and still need to redeem tickets, albeit of lesser value? However, there are a few things you can do to help things along the way. Here, we will explain precisely how online casinos pay out winnings, alongside a few tips and advice on how to try and speed things up. How online casinos pay you. Withdrawing at an online casino has three steps before the money arrives in your account: Requesting; Approving
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